Kansas Economic Outlook Conference Registration, Wichita October, 6, 2016

 

Misery Index Decreasing in U.S.

Misery Index in KansasBetween the first and second quarters of 2016, the general level of misery experienced by people in the United States decreased and remains well below the 2015 level. This can be attributed to continued decreases in the unemployment rate, low levels of inflation and increases in housing prices. The level of misery in Kansas also decreased between the first and second quarters and remains below the 2015 level.

Within each of the metropolitan areas in Kansas, the misery index remains lower than in the United States as a whole.

The Misery Index, as calculated by the Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR), includes the following components:

  • The Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  • The House Price Index (HPI) from the Federal Housing Finance Agency
  • Unemployment Rates (UR) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Read the complete second quarter report.

 
 

Midwest Annual Inflation Rates Fall, July 2016

InflationThe Consumer Price Index is used to calculate inflation, or the change in price of a basket of goods and services, as it impacts consumers; whereas, the Producer Price Index measures changes in selling prices, thereby expressing price changes from the perspective of the seller who produces a particular commodity.

A slide presentation updated with July 2016 data shows the Midwest inflation rate fell from June to July. While the urban metropolitan areas noticed a 0.61% decrease, the non-metropolitan urban areas saw a smaller decrease of 0.26%. 

The Producer Price Index data shows that prices in the United States have increased from July 2015 to July 2016 for aircraft (0.9 percent). During that same time period, the index decreased crude petroleum (-14.6 percent), natural gas (-2.1 percent), slaughter livestock (-15.8 percent), sorghum (-39.4 percent) and wheat (-25.7 percent).

Access this slide presentation.

Learn more about the CPI.

Learn more about the PPI.

Current Indices dips slightly, August 2016

Current & Leading Indices From May to June, the WSU Current Conditions Index decreased by 0.2 percent. The Current Conditions Index increased year-to-year by 1.1 percent from May 2015 to June 2016.

The WSU Leading Index will be delayed due to the referendum in the United Kingdom.  It is anticipated the data will be available again in September.  The WSU Leading Index will be available again at that time. 

Read a further analysis of the monthly Index activity.

Access Index data.

 
 

Kansas Gap Analysis: General Merchandise

Click to enlargeGeneral merchandise stores include department stores, supercenters, warehouse clubs, and other establishments specializing in the sale of a general line of retail goods.  These stores are an important part of the retail economy in many Kansas communities.

  • Fourteen Kansas counties were identified as not having any establishments classified as general merchandise in the dataset, which could indicate either a lack of general merchandise stores in those areas, or establishments classified in another retail business sector also sell general merchandise in those areas.  Thirteen of these counties have a population less than 10,000 people.

Read the full article.

Unemployment Rates Rise in Kansas MSAs

EmploymentThe unemployment rate for Kansas, as a whole, rose by 0.8 percentage points from May of 2016 to June of 2016. Lawrence and Manhattan saw the largest increase, rising by 1.0 percentage points, while Wichita and Topeka followed suit with an increase of 0.9 and 0.7 percentage points respectively.

A slide presentation is available with additional employment and unemployment data for Kansas and its four metro areas.

View the June slide presentation.

Employment-Population Ratio Across Kansas

Click to enlarge.The employment-population ratio has varied significantly across different areas in Kansas over the last fourteen years. Some counties have seen sharp declines, while others have been slowly growing.

Outside of the major population centers, Kansas has maintained a largely constant employment-population ratio since the recession. The level of the ratio is very similar to the pre-recessionary period from 2002 to 2005. From 2005 to 2008 the employment-population ratio rose, and then following the recession it returned to the 2002 to 2005 level.

Read more.

Kansas Services & Retail Gap Analysis

Services Gap Analysis

Professional and business services are an integral part of the modern economy. CEDBR has conducted a service gap analysis for every county in Kansas, comparing the sales and employment of the professional, scientific, technical, and other services sectors in each county to their peer counties in Kansas.

  • The Kansas counties with the highest ratios of total services sales to their peers were Marshall County and Osborne County.
     
  • The counties with the lowest ratios were Leavenworth County and McPherson County.

Click to enlarge

Read the Services Analysis Summary.


Retail Gap Analysis

Retail sales are an important part of the local economies of every county throughout Kansas. CEDBR has conducted a retail gap analysis for every county in Kansas, comparing the retail sales and employment in each county to their peer counties in Kansas.

  • 24 Kansas counties had retail sales between 75 and 100 percent of the average level of their peers, and 16 Kansas counties had retail sales between 100 and 125 percent of the average level of their peers.

Click to enlarge.

Read the Retail Analysis Summary.

Wichita Employment-Population Ratio

Click to enlarge. The employment-population ratio is a measure of labor market strength. This is often used alongside the unemployment rate in determining the strength of the labor market.

Following the 2008 national recession, the employment-population ratio continued to decline at the U.S., Kansas, and Sedgwick County levels until the ratio reached its trough in 2014. Sedgwick County experienced a larger decline in its employment-population ratio than Kansas or the U.S. did, with a drop of 8.9 percentage points from 2008 to 2014.

Read more.

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Center for Economic Development and Business Research
W. Frank Barton School of Business|
Wichita State University
1845 Fairmount (located in NIAR)
Wichita, KS 67260-0121
P: (316) 978-3225 | F: (316) 978-3950
E: cedbr@wichita.edu

e-Connection Newsletter Preview

2016 Media Citations

More media resources
available at www.media.cedbr.org

City OKs new IRBs for Spirit AeroSystems
Wichita Business Journal
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Kansas Seeing More Startups, But Little Job Growth
KMUW
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Wichita State study: New Kansas businesses add few workers
Wichita Eagle
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Tax Abatements: A Boon For The City, Or Not Worth The Cost?
KMUW
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Rose Hill considers tax abatement amid dire budget situation
Derby Informer
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County's future depends on the outlook today
The Marysville Advocate
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National article questions depth of Wichita's aerospace job pool
KSN
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Population here predicted to drop
The Marysville Advocate
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In Kansas, managers' income gains nearly match farm, telecom worker losses
Wichita Eagle
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Brownback 'experiment' falling flat
Hutchinson News
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Kansas' litany of grim realities
The Garden City Telegram
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Kansas loses jobs in Februrary for first time since 2011, according to state survey
Wichita Eagle
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Mark Peterson: Kansas must change or even more will leave
Wichita Eagle
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Your wake-up call for the day, or maybe the year 
High Plains/Midwest Ag Journal
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As Bombardier cuts jobs, the rest of the Wichita aviation market could stabilize
KSN
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Yael T. Abouhalkah: Think Johnson County is crowded now? Wait until it hits 1 million people
Kansas City Star
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WSU study: Kansas population forecasted to transfer to metro areas
The Sunflower
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Graduate student's research helps WSU develop state population forecast
Wichita State News
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Code red for rural hospitals
Hillsboro Star-Journal
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School data shows drop in child homelessness
Topeka Capital-Journal
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County population to increase
The Morning Sun
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Report: Kansas Sees Give Percent Growth In Business
KMUW
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County expected to shrink over time
The Kansan
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Forecast: Elderly Population to Double, Outnumber Children
WIBW
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Kansans in 50 years will be mostly urban, mostly older
WIchita Business Journal
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(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
WOW! 6 News
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(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
KAKE
____________

(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
KMUW
____________

(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
KSNT
____________

(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
KWCH
____________

(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
Lawrence Journal-World
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(AP) Forecast: Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
NTV
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(AP) Kansas elderly population to double
Parson Sun
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(AP) Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber children, forecast predicts
Shawnee Dispatch
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(AP) Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber children, forecast predicts
Tonganoxie Mirror
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(AP) Study: Kansas Elderly Population To Double, Outnumber Children
News on 6
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Argus Press
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Bristol Herald
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Brownsville Herald
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Clay Center Dispatch
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Daily Journal
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Emporia Gazette
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Greenfield Reporter
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Hastings Tribune
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Hutchinson News
____________

(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Lebanon Daily Record
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Odessa American
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
The Eagle (Bryan-College Station, TX)
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
The Monitor
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
The Republic (Columbus, Indiana)
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(AP) Study: Kansas elderly population to double, outnumber kids
Valley Morning Star
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(AP) WSU Forecast: Elderly population to double, outnumber children
KSN
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Guess where nearly a third of Kansans will live in 2064
Kansas City Business Journal
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Kansas' aging population expected to double
KSN
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Kansas population forecast released by Wichita State
Wichita State News
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Kansas population forecast shows aging population
KWCH
____________

Kansas population forecast to hit 3.5 million by 2064, Wichita State study says
Topeka Capital-Journal
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Slow population growth projected in Kansas over next 50 years, study finds
Wichita Eagle
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State population predicted to rise over 50 years
Garden City Telegram
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Study shows continuing population declines
Hays Daily
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Study: In 50 years Kansas population will be much older, more urban (+video)
Wichita Eagle
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Study: Kansas population expected to increase
KWCH
____________

Surprising numbers in latest Kansas population forecast (VIDEO)
Hays Post
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Surprising numbers in latest Kansas population forecast (VIDEO)
Salina Post
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Play together or pay dearly
Peabody Gazette-Bulletin
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As percentage of homeowners falls, Wichita looks to more mobile future (+video)
Wichita Eagle