• 2021 Stock Market Business Predictions
  • 2018 Stock Market Student Predictions

 

PREDICTED VALUE ON September 1, 2021

For the Fourth Annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, Wichita area business professionals provided predictions of the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on September 1st, 2021.  The business professionals predicted, on average, that the index would grow to 3,640 index points by September 1st. This would represent an increase of 114 index points as compared to its closing value one year prior on September 1st, 2020, growth of 3.2 percent.  

A majority of the business professionals predicted an increase in the market, with the median prediction forecasting growth of 7.8 percent in the market.  The bullish predictions on average forecasted an increase of 331 points, while the minority of bearish predictions forecasted a decline of 426 points, on average.  All of the predictions made ranged between a decline of 16 percent and an increase of 13 percent, a wide range of possible outcomes for 2021.  The consensus forecast from major national banks, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, was more bullish than Wichita’s business professionals, with Goldman Sachs projecting growth of 11 percent and JP Morgan projecting growth of 15 percent in 2021.

The S&P 500 index closed at 3,526 on September 1st, 2020, an increase of 20.5 percent compared to one year prior.  Over the past five years, the index averaged annual growth of 12.1 percent, increasing more than 1,500 points from a base of 1,989 points in September 2015.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

September 1st, 2018
Business Professional Forecast

Predicted Change

Minimum

2,986

-540


Lower Quartile
 
3,212 -313

Mean

3,640

115

Median

3,800

274


Upper Quartile
 
3,875 349

Maximum

4,000

474

 

 

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CEDBR S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Student Entry Results

For the Second Annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, WSU students provided predictions of the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on August 31st, 2018. As of March 1st, the closing date for entries for the challenge, the S&P 500 stock index closed at 2,677.67 index points after increasing 12.3 percent in the past year. The average prediction by the WSU students for August 31st was 2849 index points, an increase of 6 percent over six months. Almost 70 percent of the entries forecast the index to increase in the next six months, ranging from predictions of increases of 1.4 percent to a 30.7 percent. The entries forecasting a drop in the index ranged from a 3.1 percent decline to an 11.5 percent decline. The median prediction of the students was for the index to rise 212 points in the next six months, for an increase of 7.9 percent. On average, the student entries were more bullish in their predictions for the market than analysts at major banks such as Goldman Sachs, Citibank, and Bank of America; the consensus 2018 forecast among analysts was for the market to grow approximately 4 percent over that six month period. The entry closest to the actual closing value on August 31st, 2018 will be recognized on stage at the 2018 Kansas Economic Outlook Conference on October 4th, 2018 at the Century II Convention Center in Wichita.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

August 31st, 2018 Forecast

March 1st 2018

Predicted Change

Median

2,890

2,677

+213

Mean

2,849

2,677

-172

Minimum

2,395

2,677

-283

Maximum

3,500

2,677

+823

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PREDICTED VALUE ON September 1, 2021

For the Fourth Annual Center for Economic Development and Business Research S&P 500 Prediction Challenge, Wichita area business professionals provided predictions of the value of the S&P 500 stock market index on September 1st, 2021.  The business professionals predicted, on average, that the index would grow to 3,640 index points by September 1st. This would represent an increase of 114 index points as compared to its closing value one year prior on September 1st, 2020, growth of 3.2 percent.  

A majority of the business professionals predicted an increase in the market, with the median prediction forecasting growth of 7.8 percent in the market.  The bullish predictions on average forecasted an increase of 331 points, while the minority of bearish predictions forecasted a decline of 426 points, on average.  All of the predictions made ranged between a decline of 16 percent and an increase of 13 percent, a wide range of possible outcomes for 2021.  The consensus forecast from major national banks, such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, was more bullish than Wichita’s business professionals, with Goldman Sachs projecting growth of 11 percent and JP Morgan projecting growth of 15 percent in 2021.

The S&P 500 index closed at 3,526 on September 1st, 2020, an increase of 20.5 percent compared to one year prior.  Over the past five years, the index averaged annual growth of 12.1 percent, increasing more than 1,500 points from a base of 1,989 points in September 2015.

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

September 1st, 2018
Business Professional Forecast

Predicted Change

Minimum

2,986

-540


Lower Quartile
 
3,212 -313

Mean

3,640

115

Median

3,800

274


Upper Quartile
 
3,875 349

Maximum

4,000

474