Kansas Employment Forecast
2024 Kansas Employment Forecast
October Update
As Kansas navigates the complexities of a global economic landscape, the state's past performance offers valuable insights into its future trajectory. Having demonstrated resilience and adaptability in 2021, 2022, and 2023, Kansas is poised for a promising 2024.
Reflecting on Recent Performance
Over the past three years, the Kansas economy has shown remarkable growth. In 2021, the state registered a GDP growth of 2.9%, slightly moderated to 2.3% in 2022 but expected to rebound to 2.5% in 2023. This performance becomes even more commendable considering the global economic slowdown and challenges many Midwest states face: acceleration in energy costs, lack of alternative suppliers, and draught.
The employment sector, too, has seen consistent and above the natural rate of growth. By the end of 2023, Kansas is projected to add over 25,000 jobs, marking a growth rate of 1.8%.
Looking Ahead: 2024 Employment Forecast
Building on this momentum, 2024 holds several promising prospects for Kansas:
- Production: A significant growth driver, the production sector is anticipated to grow by 0.9% in 2024. The durables manufacturing industry, in particular, is poised for a 4.1% growth, reinforcing Kansas's stronghold in this sector and reinforced by the state and local economic developers' recent wins with the expansions in food production, semiconductor, and electric battery manufacturing.
- Services: Representing a major portion of Kansas's employment, the services sector is forecasted to grow by 0.6% in 2024. The professional & business services sector stands out, with a projected growth of 1.2%. Demand for IT consulting, systems integration, and cybersecurity are some technological advancements generating recent demands along with shifts within business models, creating more needs for flexible, project-based, and outsourced services.
Firm Growth: Output Forecast
- GDP Growth by Industry: With the overall state GDP expected to grow by 2.0% in 2024, specific sectors are set to outshine:
- Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction: Foreseen to grow at a remarkable 15.3%, reflecting the state's rich resource base, increasing demand, and decreased global supply.
- Manufacturing: The durable goods segment is expected to see a growth of 4.1%, highlighting the state's manufacturing capabilities and part of the ramping up of new industries and the aerospace sector.
Purchasing Power: Total Income Forecast
In 2021, Kansas's total nominal income was approximately $172.9 billion, with a per capita income of $58,924. The following year, 2022, both slightly declined as firms hesitated to increase wages due to market uncertainty. Projections for 2023 suggest a 2.6% increase in total income and a 2.1% rise in per capita income, reaching roughly $176.9 billion and $59,231, respectively. Since this does not include inflation, real wages are likely negative. By 2025, Kansas's nominal income is forecasted to reach approximately $185.9 billion, with a 2.5% annualized growth rate.
Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market remains a significant pillar of Kansas's economic strength. With the unemployment rate expected to hover around 3.1% in 2024 and 2025, the state continues to offer a robust labor environment. The labor force is expected to continue to increase at a similar rate to employment, which is expected to come from migration, natural rate of growth, and marginal increases in participation rates.
The 2024 and 2025 forecasts show slightly above the natural rate of growth for employment because of several underlying growth sectors and recent investments. Output is expected to be even more robust than employment as firms continue to drive increases in productivity as they face the tightening labor market. The Kansas forecast for income remains subdued compared to the nation, which remains the largest economic force preventing growth and the attraction of economic migrants.
Kansas City Employment Forecast
2024 Kansas City Employment Forecast
October Update
As we set our sights on the future, the Kansas City, KS region, an economic powerhouse for the state, appears to remain on a growth trajectory. Observing its recent performance and understanding the impending economic trends for 2024 can offer a clearer vision of the region's growth potential.
Reflecting on Recent Performance
The Kansas City, KS region continues to attract labor and capital to fuel its long-term growth. One of the most outstanding sectors has been the production sector. In 2023, it registered a growth of 2.3%, underpinned by significant advances in the natural resources, mining, and construction segment, which grew by 5.5%. Most of that growth was from the construction industry, as the region continues attracting housing, commercial, and industrial investments.
Trade witnessed a dip in 2023, while the services sector, which encompasses a myriad of industries, showed a healthy increase of 2.6%. Notably, the professional & business services, pivotal for the region, marked a growth of 2.5%.
Looking Ahead: 2024 Employment Forecast
Kansas City, KS, is gearing up for a prosperous 2024, with several sectors set to shine:
- Production: The durables segment, a cornerstone of the regional economy, is anticipated to grow by 1.4% in 2024, reflecting the region's recent investment in manufacturing.
- Services: A major employer in the region, the services sector is projected to see a growth of 1.0% in 2024 and 2025. The professional & business services sector is particularly significant, with an anticipated growth of 1.8%. This segment continues to capitalize on the shifting demand of outsourcing and remote working.
Purchasing Power: Total Income Forecast
In 2021, Kansas City, KS's total nominal income was approximately $135.1 billion, with a per capita income of $61,410. Fast forward to 2023, and the total income is projected to grow by 3.5%, reaching nearly $140.4 billion. By 2024, the region's nominal income is anticipated to touch $145.1 billion, showcasing a growth of 3.3%. The growth in per-capita income is expected to increase faster than the presumed 2% Federal Reserve target, which reflects the region’s increasing competition for labor.
Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market in Kansas City, KS, remains robust. The unemployment rate is expected to settle around 3.1% in 2024. This steady labor market, coupled with the projected growth in several sectors, reinforces the region's economic stability.
In summation, the Kansas City, KS region, with its diverse economic sectors and steady labor market, is well-positioned for a fruitful 2024. The employment and income growth are expected to remain above its natural rate of growth and higher than inflation. The projections underscore the region's inherent strengths and its ability to adapt and grow in a dynamic economic environment.
Topeka Employment Forecast
2024 Topeka Employment Forecast
October Update
Topeka, the capital city of Kansas, stands at a pivotal juncture of economic transformation. While the city's recent performance provides a basis for understanding current conditions, it's the anticipation of 2024 that offers a glimpse into the city's future economic potential.
Reflecting on Recent Performance
Over the last year, Topeka's production sector has shown resilience. Although there was a decline in durables and non-durables, the natural resources, mining, and construction sectors notably surged by 5.6% in 2023. That growth was highly concentrated within the construction portion of the industry. On the other hand, the services sector, a significant employment contributor in the city, saw an uplift of 2.3% in the same year. Within this sector, the education & health services and professional & business services stood out with growth rates of 4.2% and 1.8%, respectively.
Looking Ahead: 2024 Employment Forecast
As we navigate toward 2024, several sectors in Topeka seem poised for growth:
- Production: The overall production sector is expected to grow by 2.6%. The non-durables segment leads that growth, which includes food production, and is anticipated to expand by 5.9%.
- Services: The services sector is projected to maintain its growth momentum with an estimated increase of 0.4% in 2024. The education & health services segment shines bright with a 0.2% growth, indicating the city's focus on community welfare and education.
Purchasing Power: Total Income Forecast
In 2021, Topeka's total nominal income stood at approximately $12.48 billion, with a per capita income of $53,655. While there was a decline in 2022, the city is on track for a rebound. By 2023, the nominal income is projected to grow by 2.5%, reaching nearly $12.7 billion. By 2024, the forecast suggests a further rise to about $13.01 billion, marking a growth of 2.4%.
Labor Market Dynamics
Topeka's labor market remains a cornerstone of its economic infrastructure. The city's unemployment rate is projected to stabilize around 3.1% in 2024, signifying a robust employment environment. The labor force, too, is set to grow, albeit at a modest rate, reinforcing the city's steady economic pulse.
In summation, the Kansas City, KS region, with its diverse economic sectors and steady labor market, is well-positioned for a fruitful 2024. The employment and income growth are expected to remain above its natural rate of growth and higher than inflation. The projections underscore the region's inherent strengths and its ability to adapt and grow in a dynamic economic environment.
Wichita Employment Forecast
2024 Wichita Employment Forecast
October Update
Wichita, the largest city in Kansas, is set to embrace a promising economic horizon in 2024. The city's past and projected data reflect a resilient and adaptable economic landscape against the Kansas economy's broader backdrop and will regain its position as an economic driver of the state.
Reflecting on Recent Performance
Wichita has maintained a steady momentum in the past years. The production sector, a cornerstone of Wichita's economy, saw a 2.9% growth in 2023. In this sector, durables have shown promise, with a 4.2% growth in the same year. Such growth underlines the city's legacy as the "Air Capital of the World" with its deeply rooted aviation manufacturing industry and its recent increased diversification into other sectors.
The leisure & hospitality sectors have also demonstrated stability after it was one of the hardest hit sectors by the pandemic. The sector is anticipated to grow by 2.1% in 2023, adding 691 jobs. The growth is from the continued labor demand and slow reduction of uncertainty.
Looking Ahead: 2024 Employment Forecast
For Wichita, 2024 holds promise:
- Production: The durables segment, which plays a pivotal role in Wichita's economy, is forecasted to grow by 2.3% in 2024. The increase includes the ramp-up of aerospace, semiconductor, and food processing manufacturing. The net growth of just over 1,000 jobs does not include all of the posted jobs needed by firms.
- Services: Representing a large chunk of Wichita's employment, the services sector is forecasted to grow by 0.4% in 2024. The professional & business services sector, despite a slight decline in 2023, is set for a rebound with a growth rate of 0.9%.
Purchasing Power: Total Income Forecast
Wichita's total nominal income stood at approximately $36.5 billion in 2021, with a per capita income of $56,343. Projections for 2023 suggest an increase of 2.4% in total income, reaching roughly $37.4 billion. By 2024, Wichita's nominal income is expected to touch $38.7 billion, growing at 3.4%. Per-capita income is expected to increase faster than the presumed 2% Federal Reserve target, which reflects the region’s increasing competition for labor.
Labor Market Dynamics
Wichita's labor market has been relatively stable. The unemployment rate is projected to be around 3.6% in 2024 and in 2025. This stability in the labor market and the expected growth in various sectors underscores Wichita's resilience and adaptability.
Wichita, an economic driver of Kansas, is gearing up for a promising 2024. With its robust sectors showing steady growth and a stable labor market, the city is well-poised to navigate the challenges of the global economy and leverage its inherent strengths. Employment and income growth are both expected to remain more competitive than it has over the previous decade.
*The Wichita metropolitan area consists of Sedgwick, Butler, Harvey, and Sumner counties.
Rest of Kansas
2024 Rest of Kansas Employment Forecast
October Update
As we navigate the intricacies of economic growth, the Rest of Kansas region – encompassing all non-major metropolitan areas excluding Topeka, Kansas City, and Wichita – promises a vibrant economic future. Reflecting on its past performance helps project its growth trajectory for the upcoming years, especially as 2024 looms on the horizon.
Reflecting on Recent Performance
The Rest of Kansas has showcased commendable growth in various sectors:
- Production: This sector saw a growth of 2.3% in 2023. Specifically, natural resources, mining, and construction led the charge with a 5.6% growth, indicating a robust infrastructure and resource development phase.
- Trade: Exhibiting a growth of 1.8% in 2023, this sector continued to be a significant contributor to the region's economy.
- Services: A critical employment sector for the Rest of Kansas, it witnessed a growth of 3.1% in 2023. Within this segment, education & health services, and leisure & hospitality stood out with growth rates of 4.2% and 4.0%, respectively, underscoring the region's focus on public welfare, recreation, and tourism.
Looking Ahead: 2024 Employment Forecast
Venturing into 2024, several sectors in the Rest of Kansas region are expected to maintain their growth momentum:
- Production: The overall production sector is projected to see a minor growth of 0.2%. The natural resources, mining, and construction sectors are anticipated to expand by 3.4%, reflecting the region's continued emphasis on these industries.
- Services: Representing a significant portion of the employment segment, the services sector is projected to grow by 0.3% in 2024. The education & health services segment remains promising, with a forecasted growth of 0.3%.
Government: This sector is anticipated to see a growth of 0.4% in 2024, indicating stable government employment opportunities and public sector initiatives.
