Released January 5, 2021 (See previous version)
The Topeka metropolitan area’s employment declined by 400 workers in 2019, the area’s third consecutive year without an increase in employment. Despite the employment decline, the area’s unemployment rate to 3.3 percent. In the second quarter of 2020, employment declined by 7,900 workers, a 7.1 percent decrease. The economy began to rebound in the third quarter of 2020, adding 3,100 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped by 3.2 percentage points to 6.3 percent.
The recovery is forecast to continue in the fourth quarter of 2020 and into 2021 at a more modest pace. The average employment growth for 2021 is projected to be 0.7 percent, which would recover more than 700 of the almost 4,000 jobs lost in 2020. Economic uncertainty will remain high for the near future with uncertain timing of the full coronavirus vaccine rollout and uncertainty in national macroeconomic conditions. If the national recovery is in the upper range of expectations, local employment is projected to increase by 0.9 percent. A slower than expected national recovery would reduce growth expectations for Topeka to 0.5 percent.
*The Topeka metropolitan area consists of Jackson, Jefferson, Osage, Shawnee, and Wabaunsee counties in Kansas.
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Topeka Employment by Industry Summary* | |||||
2019 (a) | 2020 (e) | 2021 (f) | 2020-2021 Level Change |
2020-2021 Percent Change | |
Total Nonfarm | 111,564 | 107,600 | 108,363 | 763 | 0.70% |
Production Sectors | 13,415 | 12,937 | 13,062 | 125 | 1.00% |
Nat. Resources, Mining & Cons. | 5,392 | 4,861 | 4,889 | 28 | 0.60% |
Manufacturing | 8,024 | 8,076 | 8,173 | 97 | 1.20% |
Trade, Transportation & Utilities | 16,807 | 16,407 | 16,396 | -12 | -0.10% |
Wholesale Trade | 2,675 | 2,563 | 2,493 | -70 | -2.70% |
Retail Trade | 10,332 | 9,992 | 10,158 | 166 | 1.70% |
Transportation & Utilities | 3,800 | 3,852 | 3,745 | -107 | -2.80% |
Service Sectors | 54,633 | 52,343 | 53,310 | 966 | 1.80% |
Information | 1,333 | 1,288 | 1,223 | -65 | -5.00% |
Financial Activities | 7,692 | 7,578 | 7,630 | 51 | 0.70% |
Professional & Business Services | 12,952 | 12,590 | 12,718 | 129 | 1.00% |
Education & Health Services | 19,134 | 18,631 | 18,968 | 337 | 1.80% |
Leisure & Hospitality | 8,797 | 7,806 | 8,194 | 388 | 5.00% |
Other Services | 4,724 | 4,450 | 4,576 | 126 | 2.80% |
Government | 26,709 | 25,912 | 25,596 | -316 | -1.20% |
*Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections. | |||||
(a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted | |||||
Source: CEDBR, BLS - CES |
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Released January 5, 2021 (See previous version)
Employment in the Wichita metropolitan area grew 1.8 percent to 305,100 workers in 2019, while the unemployment rate reached a twenty-year low of 3.4 percent. With the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in April 2020, unemployment spiked to 17.7 percent, and employment declined by more than 27,000 workers in the second quarter. The economy began to recover in the third quarter with the addition of 10,400 jobs. The unemployment rate declined to 9.8 percent in the third quarter, a level approximately as high as Wichita’s peak unemployment in the 2009 recession, before declining to 6.8 percent in October 2020.
The recovery is expected to continue on a more modest scale with continued job growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 and into 2021. Average employment growth is forecast to be 0.7 percent in 2021, which would add more than 2,000 jobs back to the Wichita economy. This will likely remain a volatile time for the Wichita economy throughout 2021 due to the continuing coronavirus outbreak, the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine, and high economic uncertainty both in the national macroeconomy and the aerospace industry. If the national recovery and vaccine have effects on the high end of expectations, Wichita’s growth is expected to grow up to 1.4 percent. If the national recovery is more modest or downside risks are realized, Wichita’s employment is projected to remain close to flat in 2021. A full recovery from the coronavirus recession across all local industries is expected to take years.
*The Wichita metropolitan consists of Sedgwick, Butler, Harvey, Kingman, and Sumner counties.
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Wichita Employment by Industry Summary* | |||||
2019 (a) | 2020 (e) | 2021 (f) | 2020-2021 Level Change |
2020-2021 Percent Change | |
Total Nonfarm | 305,027 | 293,304 | 295,492 | 2,188 | 0.70% |
Production Sectors | 71,671 | 67,052 | 65,912 | -1,140 | -1.70% |
Nat. Resources, Mining & Cons. | 16,672 | 15,956 | 16,198 | 242 | 1.50% |
Manufacturing | 54,999 | 51,097 | 49,715 | -1,382 | -2.70% |
Durable Goods | 46,816 | 42,896 | 41,452 | -1,444 | -3.40% |
Non-Durable Goods | 8,183 | 8,200 | 8,262 | 62 | 0.80% |
Trade, Transportation & Utilities | 50,354 | 49,289 | 50,110 | 821 | 1.70% |
Wholesale Trade | 8,758 | 8,403 | 8,259 | -144 | -1.70% |
Retail Trade | 31,562 | 30,683 | 31,406 | 723 | 2.40% |
Transportation & Utilities | 10,034 | 10,203 | 10,445 | 242 | 2.40% |
Service Sectors | 141,237 | 136,229 | 138,711 | 2,482 | 1.80% |
Information | 3,908 | 3,578 | 3,444 | -134 | -3.80% |
Financial Activities | 11,664 | 11,595 | 11,609 | 14 | 0.10% |
Professional & Business Services | 35,266 | 35,371 | 35,294 | -77 | -0.20% |
Education & Health Services | 46,549 | 46,221 | 47,545 | 1,324 | 2.90% |
Leisure & Hospitality | 33,089 | 28,951 | 30,280 | 1,329 | 4.60% |
Other Services | 10,761 | 10,514 | 10,539 | 25 | 0.20% |
Government | 41,765 | 40,734 | 40,759 | 25 | 0.10% |
*Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections. | |||||
(a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted | |||||
Source: CEDBR, BLS - CES |
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Released January 5, 2021 (See previous version)
Total employment in the Kansas City, MO-KS, metropolitan area1 grew 0.8 percent in 2019 with the addition of 8,500 workers, while the unemployment rate reached 3.3 percent, the lowest level for the metro area in twenty years. Employment decreased by 99,600 jobs in the second quarter of 2020 during the outbreak of the novel coronavirus, followed by a recovery in the third quarter of 49,400 jobs. The unemployment rate remained elevated at 6.6 percent in the third quarter.
The recovery is expected to continue at a slower pace in the fourth quarter of 2020 and into 2021. The average expected growth for 2021 is forecast to be 1.3 percent, adding more than 14,100 jobs to the local economy but still more than 32,000 jobs below its 2019 peak. The exact pace of the local recovery is especially uncertain due to both the rollout of the coronavirus vaccine in 2021 as well as uncertainty at the national and international macroeconomic level. If the national recovery and vaccine rollout are at the upper end of expectations, employment growth expectations would increase to 1.7 percent, while the lower end of national expectations would reduce employment growth expectations to 1 percent.
*The Kansas City, MO-KS, metropolitan area includes Bates, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton, Jackson, Lafayette, Platte and Ray counties in Missouri and Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami, and Wyandotte counties in Kansas.
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Kansas City Employment by Industry Summary* | |||||
2019 (a) | 2020 (e) | 2021 (f) | 2020-2021 Level Change |
2020-2021 Percent Change | |
Total Nonfarm | 1,095,990 | 1,053,413 | 1,067,557 | 14,145 | 1.30% |
Production Sectors | 130,525 | 130,479 | 131,963 | 1,484 | 1.10% |
Nat. Resources, Mining & Cons. | 52,879 | 55,685 | 56,402 | 718 | 1.30% |
Manufacturing | 77,646 | 74,794 | 75,561 | 767 | 1.00% |
Trade, Transportation & Utilities | 218,601 | 214,557 | 217,879 | 3,322 | 1.50% |
Wholesale Trade | 52,041 | 50,381 | 49,908 | -473 | -0.90% |
Retail Trade | 110,014 | 108,362 | 111,419 | 3,057 | 2.80% |
Transportation & Utilities | 56,547 | 55,814 | 56,553 | 739 | 1.30% |
Service Sectors | 598,382 | 559,980 | 568,419 | 8,439 | 1.50% |
Information | 16,101 | 15,128 | 14,337 | -791 | -5.20% |
Financial Activities | 78,734 | 75,922 | 76,240 | 317 | 0.40% |
Professional & Business Services | 191,856 | 184,904 | 186,738 | 1,834 | 1.00% |
Education & Health Services | 156,649 | 151,762 | 153,884 | 2,123 | 1.40% |
Leisure & Hospitality | 112,227 | 91,035 | 95,243 | 4,209 | 4.60% |
Other Services | 42,814 | 41,230 | 41,977 | 747 | 1.80% |
Government | 148,482 | 148,397 | 149,296 | 899 | 0.60% |
*Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections. | |||||
(a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted | |||||
Source: CEDBR, BLS - CES |
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Released January 5, 2021 (See previous version)
Total employment in Kansas increased to 1,423,200 workers in 2019, with 0.5 percent growth, as unemployment declined 3.2 percent, its lowest level since 1978. Nine consecutive years of declines in unemployment ended in the second quarter of 2020, as employment fell 8 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This was the single largest one-quarter employment contraction in state history, with a reduction in employment of more than 113,000 workers. The unemployment rate rose from 2.9 percent in March 2020 to 11.9 percent in April 2020. In the third quarter of 2020, employment began to rebound, adding more than 45,000 jobs while the unemployment rate declined to 6.7 percent.
Employment is expected to recover more modestly in the fourth quarter of 2020 and into 2021. Economic uncertainty will remain high statewide in 2021 until the vaccine to the novel coronavirus is administered to the full population, leading to expectations of muted economic recovery throughout the year. The economy remains especially vulnerable to downside risks during uncertain times, and macroeconomic conditions will likely continue to be more volatile than normal even after the vaccine is introduced. Kansas’ average employment increase is projected to be 0.7 percent in 2021, adding almost 10,000 jobs. This growth, plus the third and fourth quarter growth in 2020, would recover approximately half of the employment lost during the initial outbreak of the novel coronavirus. A faster than expected national recovery could boost Kansas’ growth to a projected 1 percent, while a sluggish national recovery could reduce Kansas’ growth in half to 0.4 percent.
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Kansas Employment by Industry Summary* | |||||
2019 (a) | 2020 (e) | 2021 (f) | 2020-2021 Level Change |
2020-2021 Percent Change | |
Total Nonfarm | 1,422,979 | 1,369,229 | 1,378,315 | 9,087 | 0.70% |
Production Sectors | 237,381 | 230,075 | 229,608 | -467 | -0.20% |
Nat. Resources, Mining & Cons. | 70,249 | 70,068 | 70,764 | 696 | 1.00% |
Manufacturing | 167,133 | 160,007 | 158,844 | -1,163 | -0.70% |
Durable Goods | 99,750 | 91,943 | 89,685 | -2,259 | -2.50% |
Non-Durable Goods | 67,383 | 68,064 | 69,159 | 1,095 | 1.60% |
Trade, Transportation & Utilities | 267,034 | 264,824 | 268,592 | 3,768 | 1.40% |
Wholesale Trade | 58,052 | 56,050 | 55,669 | -381 | -0.70% |
Retail Trade | 142,080 | 140,351 | 142,886 | 2,535 | 1.80% |
Transportation & Utilities | 66,902 | 68,423 | 70,037 | 1,614 | 2.40% |
Service Sectors | 658,576 | 622,511 | 632,462 | 9,951 | 1.60% |
Information | 18,132 | 16,618 | 15,674 | -943 | -5.70% |
Financial Activities | 77,321 | 75,695 | 75,084 | -611 | -0.80% |
Professional & Business Services | 178,971 | 173,195 | 174,242 | 1,047 | 0.60% |
Education & Health Services | 202,001 | 195,842 | 200,148 | 4,306 | 2.20% |
Leisure & Hospitality | 130,456 | 113,344 | 118,677 | 5,334 | 4.70% |
Other Services | 51,695 | 47,817 | 48,635 | 819 | 1.70% |
Government | 259,988 | 251,818 | 247,654 | -4,165 | -1.70% |
*Annual values are derived from average quarterly observations and projections. | |||||
(a) actual (e) estimated (f) forecasted | |||||
Source: CEDBR, BLS - CES |
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