• 2022 Stock Market Business Predictions

 PREDICTED VALUE ON September 1, 2022

As reported in the Center for Economic Development and Business Research's fifth annual stock market challenge, Kansas business professionals are forecasting a slowdown in the S&P 500 stock mark index for September 1, 2022.   At the closing date of the annual survey, the value of the S&P 500 on November 8, 2021, was 4,701.7.   The consensus forecast of business professionals was for the market to expand by 56 points over the next year, equating to only 1.2 percent growth.  

Growth expectations varied from a decline of 17 percent to a growth of 21 percent.  To put this in perspective, the long-run average from 1926 to 2018 was between 10 and 11 percent per year, and over the last year, it was 34 percent.   Therefore, an increase of 1.2 percent is a considerable divergence from the historical and recent trends.

The consensus forecast of Kansas business professionals was not that far out of line with Goldman Sacks and JP Morgan.  Both forecasting leaders expect a limited upside to the market in 2022, with Goldman predicting a gain of 4.3 and JP Morgan 6 percent. Embedded in all three outlooks is some type of correction within the market.  

S&P 500 Prediction Challenge Responses

September 1st, 2022
Business Professional Forecast

Predicted Change

Current Value (Oct 8)

4701.7

-

Minimum

3,900.0

-801.7


Lower Quartile
 
4,289.8 -412.0

Mean

4,757.7

56.0

Median

4,843.2

141.5


Upper Quartile
 
5,125.0 423.3

Maximum

5,667.0

965.3

 

 

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